--- title: "Charitable giving outlook: Navigating uncertainty to close out 2025" description: Explore the latest insights on charitable giving trends, economic impacts, and effective donor engagement for nonprofits in the second half of 2025. image: https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hubfs/BlogDoodle_BarGraph.jpg --- [![](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/210111-RKD-Groupthinkers-Rebranded-Logo-Blog-png.png?width=157&name=210111-RKD-Groupthinkers-Rebranded-Logo-Blog-png.png)](https://blog.rkdgroup.com) - [Solutions](https://rkdgroup.com/services/) - [Mid-Level Giving](https://rkdgroup.com/services/mid-level-giving/) - [Monthly Giving](https://rkdgroup.com/services/monthly-giving/) - [Lapsed Giving](https://rkdgroup.com/services/lapsed-giving/) - [Personalization](https://rkdgroup.com/services/personalization/) - [Connectors](https://rkdgroup.com/services/connectors/) - [Machine Learning](https://rkdgroup.com/services/machine-learning/) - [Marketing + Fundraising](https://rkdgroup.com/services/marketing-fundraising/) - [Audience Development](https://rkdgroup.com/services/audience-development/) - [Creative Services](https://rkdgroup.com/services/creative-services/) - [Data Management](https://rkdgroup.com/services/data-management/) - [Strategic Planning](https://rkdgroup.com/services/strategic-planning/) - [Analytics](https://rkdgroup.com/services/analytics/) - [Causes](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/) - [Animal Care](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/animal-care/) - [Food Banks](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/food-banks/) - [Health + Hospitals](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/health-hospitals/) - [Humanitarian](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/humanitarian/) - [Missions](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/missions/) - [Salvation Army](https://rkdgroup.com/causes/the-salvation-army/) - [Results](https://rkdgroup.com/results/) - [Acquisition](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=acquisition) - [Digital](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=digital) - [Mid-Major Programs](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=mid-major-programs) - [Advanced Analytics](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=advanced-analytics) - [Direct Mail](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=direct-mail) - [Multichannel Strategy](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=multichannel-strategy) - [Data Management](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=data-management) - [Media](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=media) - [Website Development](https://rkdgroup.com/results?cat=website-development) - [Resources](https://rkdgroup.com/insights/) - [Blog](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/) - [Benchmarks](https://info.rkdgroup.com/benchmarks) - [Webinars](https://info.rkdgroup.com/webinars) - [Ebooks + Research](https://info.rkdgroup.com/ebooks-research) - [Podcast](https://info.rkdgroup.com/group-thinkers-nonprofit-marketing-podcast) - [Field Guides](https://info.rkdgroup.com/field-guides) - [About Us](https://rkdgroup.com/about/) - [Leadership](https://rkdgroup.com/about/leadership/) - [Careers](https://rkdgroup.com/about/careers/) - [Let's Chat](https://rkdgroup.com/lets-chat/) #### Subscribe to our blog ### Subscribe to Email Updates ## Featured Post   [RKD Group](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/author/rkd-group) ## [RKD Group Acquires Whiteboard](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/rkd-group-acquires-whiteboard) Premier Marketing Agency Bolsters Conceptual Creative Capabilities by Acquiring Award-Winning Agency PLANO, Texas, July 27, 2026 — Today, RKD Group, Nor\[...\] [Digital Fundraising](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/digital-fundraising) [Direct Mail Fundraising](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/direct-mail-fundraising) [Multichannel](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/multichannel) [Fundraising](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/fundraising) [Nonprofit Industry](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/nonprofit-industry) [RKD](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/rkd) [Brand](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/brand) [Read More](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/rkd-group-acquires-whiteboard)   [Shane Thornal](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/author/shane-thornal) ## [Why nonprofits must unite SEO, social and paid media in one strategy](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/why-nonprofits-must-unite-seo-social-and-paid-media-in-one-strategy) Someone at your organization “owns” paid media. Someone else—often younger and under resourced—runs the social accounts. A third person (or maybe no one\[...\] [Digital Fundraising](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/digital-fundraising) [SEO](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/seo) [Digital Media](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/digital-media) [Social Media](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/social-media) [Data & Analytics](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/data-analytics) [Read More](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/why-nonprofits-must-unite-seo-social-and-paid-media-in-one-strategy) ## Recent Posts [Trends](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/trends) [Fundraising](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/fundraising) [Data & Analytics](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/topic/data-analytics) # Charitable giving outlook: Navigating uncertainty to close out 2025 By [Lori Collins](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/author/lori-collins) [![1771346696367](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/1771346696367.png?width=1201&height=186&name=1771346696367.png)](https://info.rkdgroup.com/subscribe) As we move through the third quarter of 2025, the economic landscape remains complex. The good news is that donors (especially those with higher incomes) are continuing to respond to need. The relationship between charitable giving and income is well-established, as is the correlation between giving and the stock market’s performance. Donors give generously when they feel that they have money to spare. So let's take a look at the data around the economy to better understand the mood of U.S. consumers/donors as we approach year-end giving season. ![RKD barometer Q3 2025](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/RKD%20barometer%20Q3%202025.jpg?width=750&height=488&name=RKD%20barometer%20Q3%202025.jpg)   ## Economic growth slows, but continues The first half of 2025 paints a picture of steady—if decelerating—growth. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.2%, a noticeable downshift from the 2.5% pace seen in 2024. Much of this year's economic cycle has been shaped by fluctuations in trade, as businesses respond to evolving tariff policies and shifting international agreements. While the momentum has softened, the economy remains on a growth trajectory—just one navigating more headwinds than tailwinds.   ## Recession fears are still here Despite chief economists dialing back recession forecasts from 60% at the end of April to around 40% in July, donor sentiment lags the professionals. According to the latest RKD Giving Barometer conducted mid-July, **61% of charitable donors believe a recession is likely within the next 12 months**. This is a 9-point increase from Q2, and a **new five-year high**, beating the former high of 59% during the height of the pandemic in Q1 2021. This disconnect between economists and consumers (about half of which are charitable donors), reveals differing perceptions, driven by day-to-day experiences. Yet, even amid uncertainty, generosity endures. While inflation has taken a toll, its grip on discretionary spending is loosening: 47% of donors report giving less due to inflation, down a significant 11 percentage points year-over-year. High-income households—naturally less impacted by inflation—are sustaining major gifts, which continue to represent a growing share of total revenue.   ## Giving follows need Approximately 30% of 501(c)(3) organizations filing IRS Form 990 report receiving federal funding. According to a 2025 survey of 2,206 nonprofit organizations conducted by Nonprofit Finance Fund (NFF), 84% of respondents with government funding expect cuts to that funding. Perhaps most encouraging is this statistic from RKD’s Q3 Giving Barometer: **76% of donors believe nonprofits have a greater need now compared to a year ago**. This recognition of growing need presents a powerful opportunity. When organizations communicate funding gaps transparently, donors respond, not out of obligation, but out of shared purpose. I'll say it again: Giving follows need.   ## The takeaway While stock market volatility is up, one-year gains for the S&P 500 are also up 15%, fueling giving vehicles like donor-advised funds (DAFs). DAFs plus other relational giving methods are going to continue to be the growth areas in a challenging individual giving environment. Charities that focus on relational approaches for engaging high-value donors, growing their monthly and digital giving programs, and delivering tailored donor experiences will be best positioned to thrive amid the evolving giving landscape.  In this moment, clear and authentic communications are more valuable than ever. Donors understand the stakes. Let’s meet them with stories of impact, urgency and hope.   ## Related articles - [How to build a modern, adaptable fundraising tech stack](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/how-to-build-a-modern-adaptable-fundraising-tech-stack) - [Take these steps to structure a successful mid-major program](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/take-these-steps-to-structure-a-successful-mid-major-program) - [Why every nonprofit should prioritize monthly giving today](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/why-every-nonprofit-should-prioritize-monthly-giving-today) ### [Lori Collins](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/author/lori-collins) Lori Collins is Executive Vice President, Marketing Science, at RKD Group. She leads RKD's data science services, including market research, audience planning, measurement & experimentation, descriptive & predictive analytics, modeling and other AI/ML solutions. Lori has a wealth of experience and a proven track record in building high-performing teams that leverage data sciences to drive strategic decisions and propel the growth and effectiveness of nonprofits' fundraising. [![25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web 750](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hs-fs/hubfs/25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web%20750.png?width=750&height=313&name=25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web%20750.png)](https://info.rkdgroup.com/2025-nonprofit-website-performance-report-access-lp) #### Leave a comment: Previous ##### [Stacy Huston shares her journey of impact in social leadership](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/stacy-huston-shares-her-journey-of-impact-in-social-leadership) Next Post ##### [A wealth of possibility: Steps to promote DAF giving](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/a-wealth-of-possibility-steps-to-promote-daf-giving) ### Search GroupThinkers ![](https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/459002/Assets%20Apr/magnifying-glass.png) [![GP Field Guide square](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hubfs/GP%20Field%20Guide%20square.png "GP Field Guide square")](https://info.rkdgroup.com/field-guides) [![25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web 1200x1200](https://blog.rkdgroup.com/hubfs/25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web%201200x1200.png "25-Nonprofit-SEO-Web 1200x1200")](https://info.rkdgroup.com/2025-nonprofit-website-performance-report-access-lp) - 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