RKD GroupThinkers Blog

Why fundraising's record first half doesn't feel like one

Written by Lori Collins | Aug 25, 2026, 3:02:54 PM

Our 2026 Mid-Year Benchmark Report is out, and the top line is genuinely good news: Mid-year revenue reached $1.86 billion—a 10-year high, up 51% over 2017. Revenue per donor, gift frequency, mid-level, and monthly giving revenue all set 10-year records, too.

Yet almost every fundraiser I talk to describes this year as hard.

They're not wrong, and the same report explains why.

Active donors fell to their lowest count since 2019. New and reactivated donors dropped again, the fifth consecutive annual decline. Adjusted for inflation, total revenue is actually down 3.0% compared to five years ago in 2021.

Fewer people. More money. Less bang for your buck.

That's the whole story, and it's worth understanding in detail. The full report breaks down 10 years of data across a range of metrics for 219 nonprofit organizations.

What the data doesn’t fully explain is why this is happening. That part is more of an economic story than a fundraising one, and it's the reason I'd argue these benchmarks matter more than usual as we head into year-end giving season.

 

A tale of two donor economies

The current economic climate presents a genuinely mixed outlook for charitable giving, and averages hide it.

On one side: The strong stock market and record overall giving are creating real momentum, particularly among mid- and major-level donors, individuals holding appreciated assets, and bequest giving. On the other: elevated inflation, a cooling labor market and ongoing policy uncertainty keep squeezing household budgets and the discretionary giving of everyday donors.

Your file is experiencing both economies at once. That's why record revenue can coincide with an eroding donor base.

Wealth in North America has concentrated at the top to a degree without modern precedent, and it's showing up in giving. The wealthiest 1% of U.S. households now hold roughly 31.7% of all household wealth—the highest share on record since the Fed began tracking it in 1989.

Giving is mirroring that curve almost exactly. U.S. giving topped $600 billion for the first time in 2025, while the share of households that give has fallen from two-thirds a generation ago to about half today. The nonprofit sector's revenue mix now matches the economy's wealth distribution: more revenue from fewer donors.

Meanwhile, the pressure on everyday donors is immediate. As of July 2026, consumer prices were up 3.4% year over year, with energy up 14.7%, gasoline up 24.6% and food up 3.0%. When groceries and fuel absorb more of the paycheck, the $25 gift is what gets reconsidered first—exactly where our data shows the deepest erosion.

It also explains something in the benchmark data that surprises people: Gift amounts grew in nominal terms while losing real value. Ask strings and sustainer defaults set in a lower-cost era are now asking donors for less than they used to, at the same moment those donors can afford less.

 

What donors are actually telling us

Here's the disconnect that should shape your fall planning: Donor sentiment is nowhere near where the stock market is.

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment sits at 55. That's five points better than a month earlier, but still roughly 30 points below its nearly 75-year average going back to the 1950s.

Among donors, it isn't much better. In our RKD Q2 Giving Barometer research among 1,000 charitable donors, we found:

    • 47% of donors say they're giving less because of inflation—up 2 points from last quarter, though still below where it was a year ago.
    • 69% believe a recession is likely in the next 12 months—up 14 points over Q1.

The household that gives you $25 is bracing for impact, even as the market hits highs. Plan for the donor's reality, not the index's.

 

Where the opportunity lies

None of the forces above are within a fundraiser's control. But your response to them is. Here are a few recommendations as we close out 2026:

Lean into the tailwinds where they're real. Organizations positioned to benefit from this moment are prioritizing relational stewardship—deepening mid-level, major, and planned giving relationships. That's where appreciated assets and bequest capacity live, and it's the segment the benchmark data shows growing fastest.

Get serious about DAFs and about modeling them properly. DAF campaigns and predictive models to find the best DAF prospects already on your file are hitting their stride. One caution: as DAF giving has become more commonplace, average gift size now includes lower amounts. Go beyond a clone or lookalike model and into a proper response model that answers this question: Who is most likely to respond if cultivated?

Keep building sustainers, and test the offer. At the everyday donor level, acquiring and converting monthly donors continues to win on long-term value. Some findings from our recent research testing 10 sustaining offers among 1,000 donors:

    • The overall winner was: "Thanks to a matching grant, your monthly gift will double."
    • With the youngest donors, two $20-level offers led: "You can make an impact for just $20 a month" and "… your monthly gift of $20 a month, which translates to $240 annually to help year-round."
    • With older donors, the efficiency play still works hardest: "You can make an impact, with more of your gift going to the cause vs. overhead costs."

 

One more factor for the fall

The mid-term elections on Nov. 3 lands inside the most valuable eight weeks of the year.

The evidence says this is an attention problem, not a wallet problem. Political giving doesn't meaningfully crowd out charitable giving, and election-year giving tends to follow whatever trajectory it was already on.

What changes is the cost of being heard: digital ad rates spike in October, and up to 18% of donors in contested states stop opening email when political volume peaks.

The fix is discipline, not new messaging. Warm donors up earlier, keep critical drops away from Election Day, and expect October acquisition to underperform.

 

Don't stop telling them the need exists

At every giving level, it's great to communicate how contributions are sustaining mission-critical work. But don't forget to communicate the level of need that still exists.

The Q2 Barometer found that 77% of charitable donors believe nonprofits have more need for donations than a year ago—a majority that holds across demographics, including political leaning. The organizations with strong PR and communications continue to outpace their peers.

The charitable organizations that thrive from here will be the ones that treat donor relationships as long-term investments at every level of giving, and keep making their need known to their communities and supporters.

Read the full 2026 Mid-Year Benchmark Report for the complete data breakdown, 10-year trends and our strategic recommendations for closing out the year and building for the future.