As we move through the third quarter of 2025, the economic landscape remains complex. The good news is that donors (especially those with higher incomes) are continuing to respond to need.
The relationship between charitable giving and income is well-established, as is the correlation between giving and the stock market’s performance. Donors give generously when they feel that they have money to spare.
So let's take a look at the data around the economy to better understand the mood of U.S. consumers/donors as we approach year-end giving season.
The first half of 2025 paints a picture of steady—if decelerating—growth.
According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), GDP expanded at an annualized rate of 1.2%, a noticeable downshift from the 2.5% pace seen in 2024. Much of this year's economic cycle has been shaped by fluctuations in trade, as businesses respond to evolving tariff policies and shifting international agreements.
While the momentum has softened, the economy remains on a growth trajectory—just one navigating more headwinds than tailwinds.
Despite chief economists dialing back recession forecasts from 60% at the end of April to around 40% in July, donor sentiment lags the professionals.
According to the latest RKD Giving Barometer conducted mid-July, 61% of charitable donors believe a recession is likely within the next 12 months. This is a 9-point increase from Q2, and a new five-year high, beating the former high of 59% during the height of the pandemic in Q1 2021.
This disconnect between economists and consumers (about half of which are charitable donors), reveals differing perceptions, driven by day-to-day experiences.
Yet, even amid uncertainty, generosity endures. While inflation has taken a toll, its grip on discretionary spending is loosening: 47% of donors report giving less due to inflation, down a significant 11 percentage points year-over-year. High-income households—naturally less impacted by inflation—are sustaining major gifts, which continue to represent a growing share of total revenue.
Approximately 30% of 501(c)(3) organizations filing IRS Form 990 report receiving federal funding. According to a 2025 survey of 2,206 nonprofit organizations conducted by Nonprofit Finance Fund (NFF), 84% of respondents with government funding expect cuts to that funding.
Perhaps most encouraging is this statistic from RKD’s Q3 Giving Barometer: 76% of donors believe nonprofits have a greater need now compared to a year ago. This recognition of growing need presents a powerful opportunity. When organizations communicate funding gaps transparently, donors respond, not out of obligation, but out of shared purpose.
I'll say it again: Giving follows need.
While stock market volatility is up, one-year gains for the S&P 500 are also up 15%, fueling giving vehicles like donor-advised funds (DAFs). DAFs plus other relational giving methods are going to continue to be the growth areas in a challenging individual giving environment.
Charities that focus on relational approaches for engaging high-value donors, growing their monthly and digital giving programs, and delivering tailored donor experiences will be best positioned to thrive amid the evolving giving landscape.
In this moment, clear and authentic communications are more valuable than ever. Donors understand the stakes. Let’s meet them with stories of impact, urgency and hope.